Asset Lifecycle Value Management

Forecast sales and patients flows under various positioning scenarii in a highly dynamic market

The context was the launch of a new drug in metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer, a highly competitive indication then. Real-world data-driven care pathway modeling and simulations provided value-based arguments for market access planning and payers negotiations

Metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer is a competitive and dynamic indication with many competitors reaching the market concomitantly.

Anticipation of optimal positioning and relative cost-effectiveness depends on how prescription patterns will adapt based on new drugs effects and indications. Such projections can be done with proper tools and data.


To forecast sales patients flows and market shares, and optimize positioning accordingly

Methods & solution

Simulate real-world exposure and treatment patterns through care pathway modeling

Markov-type model describing outcomes-driven switches over time, informed by KOL’s insights and anticipations.

Derive numbers of patients and patient-months on treatment projected over 1-3-5 years under various positioning (treatment line) and efficacy/safety scenarii.


Expected economic and medical value is higher on 2nd to 3rd line positioning

KOL insights showed that guidelines were outdated and not reliable for presciption forecasting.


Simulations supported strategic and tactic market access decisions to defend pricing and reimbursement

  • Market shares planning and value-based positioning could be set over time and action plans optimized accordingly.
  • Value dossiers and efficiency evidence could be optimized accordingly.